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TJ’s Pick 3 11-5-21 By T.J. Chapman


Last week: 1-2 Straight Up; 1-2 ATS (Against the Spread)

Season: 18-9 Straight Up; 14-13 ATS


Liberty @ Ole Miss (Oxford, MS) Ole Miss -8.5 per FanDuel

THE HUGH FREEZE BOWL!! Coach Hugh Freeze was the head coach at Ole Miss from 2012-2016 when he was fired for recruiting issues and off the field incidents. He has been the head coach at Liberty since 2019 where he has had the Flames ranked in the top 25.

Liberty is 7-2 and led by junior QB Malik Willis who has 1,986 yards, 21 TD’s (10th in the country) and 6 Int’s. He is also the Flames leader in rushing with 684 yards and 9 rushing TD’s. 3 RB’s, junior TJ Green, senior Joshua Mack and sophomore Shedro Louis have combined for 881 yards and 9 TD’s. Freshman WR Demario Douglas leads with 37 catches, 562 yards and 5 TD’s. Fellow frosh WR CJ Daniels is 2nd with 26 catches for 456 yards and he leads the Flames with 7 TD’s. The defense has been good, giving up 302.3 yards per game, 17.8 points per game while getting 27 sacks, 8 Int’s and recovering 2 fumbles. Senior LB Storey Jackson leads with 67 tackles, 40 solo to go along with 3 sacks and 1 Int. Freshman DT Kendy Charles leads with 4.5 sacks.

Ole Miss is 6-2, #15 in this week’s Top 25 and an offensive machine led by Heisman hopeful junior QB Matt Corral. The junior gunslinger has thrown for 2,202 yards, 15 TD’s and only 2 Int’s and he’s the leading rusher with 519 yards and 10 TD’s. Sophomore RB Henry Parris, Jr. has 464 yards and 2 TD’s. A duo of junior RB’s, Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy have combined for 756 yards and 12 TD’s. Senior WR Dontario Drummond leads the Rebels with 40 catches for 658 receiving yards and 6 TD’s. The defense is still atrocious. They’ve given up 433.4 yards per game, 28.6 points per game while getting 25 sacks, 4 Int’s and recovered 10 fumbles. The fumbles recovered is remarkable because the defense has given up so many yards and points. Senior LB Chance Campbell has 64 tackles, 4 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries. Senior DL Sam Williams is 2nd in the country with 8.5 sacks, he also has 34 tackles, 3 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery.

Prediction: The Liberty defense has played well this season, but they haven’t seen an offense like the one they’re about to see from Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin has his system in place and his players are all in with it. Hugh Freeze also has his system in place at Liberty and his team can put up some points too. Plus, with the non-existence of the Ole Miss defense I think this will be a shootout. Ole Miss: 34 Liberty: 28. Take Liberty getting the points since they can score and Ole Miss’ defense is abysmal.


Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Chapel Hill, NC) North Carolina -2.5 per FanDuel

There are 65 teams that make up the Power 5 Conferences of the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12. Since the start of the Associated Press Top 25 poll in 1936, 64 of those teams have been ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll at some point. The lone team not to: Wake Forest, until now. The Demon Deacons are ranked #9 in the latest AP Poll, finally cracking the Top 10, they’re #8 in the Top 25 Poll. Wake is 8-0 and led by sophomore QB Sam Hartman who is 9th in the country in both passing yards with 2,475 and passing TD’s with 22, to go along with 3 Int’s. He has also chipped in 207 rushing yards and 6 TD’s. 3 RB’s are splitting carries as junior Christian Beal-Smith leads with 97 carries for 492 yards and 7 TD’s. Freshman Justice Ellison has 64 carries for 340 yards and 4 TD’s. And sophomore Christian Turner has toted the rock 71 times for 317 yards and 3 TD’s. Hartman’s top target is junior Jaquarii Roberson who has 43 catches for 737 yards and 6 TD’s. Sophomore WR A.T. Perry has 36 catches for 716 yards and 8 TD’s. The Wake defense has been leaky, giving up 23.9 points per game, 421.5 yards per game while getting 24 sacks, 8 Int’s & recovering 9 fumbles. Junior LB Ryan Smenda, jr. & senior Luke Masterson are tied for the team lead with 44 tackles each. Senior DL Luiji Vilain leads with 4.5 sacks while adding 20 tackles.

North Carolina is 4-4 and has had a disappointing season compared to preseason expectations. Junior QB Sam Howell was a Heisman hopeful at the start of the season, but he’s been very inconsistent. He’s thrown for 2,192 yards with 19 TD’s and 7 Int’s while adding 585 rushing yards and 6 rushing TD’s. Senior RB, and Tennessee transfer, Ty Chandler leads the Tar Heels in rushing with 121 carries for 671 yards and 9 TD’s. Howell’s primary target has been sophomore Josh Downs who is 3rd in the country with 70 catches (the next closest Tar Heel receiver has 17!!), 4th in the country in receiving yards with 979 and 4th in the country with 8 TD’s. The Tar Heel defense has been gashed this season for 30.8 points per game and 396.6 yards per game while getting 15 sacks, 7 Int’s and recovering 3 fumbles. Sophomore LB Cedric Gray leads with 46 tackles, he also has 2 Int’s and 1 forced fumble.

Prediction: When it comes to Vegas, there’s always a reason. But for the life of me I can’t figure out why 8-0 Wake Forest, with that juggernaut of an offense, is a 2.5 point underdog to 4-4 UNC. Both defenses are bad, so this should be a high scoring game. I don’t think the top 10 ranking will affect Wake negatively and they go into Chapel Hill and get the W. Wake Forest: 38 UNC: 33. Take Wake getting the points.


Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (Morgantown, WV) Oklahoma St -3.5 per FanDuel

Oklahoma State is 7-1 and ranked #11 in the latest Top 25 poll. The Cowboys are led by junior QB Spencer Sanders who has thrown for 1,341 yards with 11 TD’s and 5 Int’s. The dual threat QB also has 74 carries for 298 yards and 4 TD’s, good enough for 2nd on the team in all 3 categories. Senior RB Jaylen Warren leads with 175 carries for 850 yards and 6 TD’s. Sanders’ top target is senior WR Tay Martin who has 36 catches for 529 yards and 4 TD’s. Sophomore Brennan Presley is 2nd with 23 receptions & 308 yards but leads the Cowboys with 5 TD’s. All are very low numbers for a Mike Gundy offense. The defense has been incredible, giving up only 18 points per game, 295 yards per game while getting 21 sacks, 7 Int’s and 4 fumble recoveries. These numbers are great for a team in the Big 12 who over the past decade has been accused of being a conference that does not play any defense. Senior LB Malcolm Rodriguez leads with 77 tackles, 40 solo, and has 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery for a TD. Freshman DE Collin Oliver leads the team with 4.5 sacks while Senior safety Kolby Harvell-Peel leads with 3 Int’s.

West Virginia is 4-4 heading into this game and is coming off a big home win against Iowa State. Senior QB Jarret Doege has thrown for 2,071 yards, 11 TD’s and 7 Int’s. Senior RB Leddie Brown has 141 carries for 642 yards and 11 TD’s. Brown has added 23 catches for 155 yards and 1 TD. Junior WR Winston Wright, Jr. leads with 42 catches for 523 yards but has only 1 TD. Fellow junior WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton has 31 catches for 435 yards and 3 TD’s. 13 different Mountaineers have caught a pass and 6 of those have at least 1 TD. The WVU defense has been impressive as well, giving up 22.9 points per game, 357 yards per game and getting 21 sacks, 4 Int’s and 4 fumble recoveries. Senior LB Josh Chandler-Semedo leads with 72 tackles, 45 solo (10th in the country), 1 sack and 1 forced fumble. A pair of senior DL, Taijh Alston & Dante Stills have combined for 10 sacks, just under half of the entire sack number by the Mountaineers.

Prediction: Every time I see an Oklahoma State score, I keep wondering what’s wrong. But then I realize, hey, they won again. WVU has been hot and cold this season. The win against Virginia Tech was a good win, with a tremendous defensive stand twice inside their own 20-yard line. But they’ve also looked bad, like they did against Maryland. This past weekend they were able to stop the bleeding, a 3-game losing streak, with that win over the Cyclones. Okie State has been good, especially defensively. I don’t think this will be a high scoring game. Oklahoma State: 23 WVU: 21. Take WVU getting the points even though they won’t win the game. Also take the under, whi


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