TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 8
Week 3: 1-2 overall 2-1 ATS Season Record: 13-8 Overall 8-13 ATS
Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel
GAME 1
Syracuse @ Clemson (Clemson, SC) Clemson -13.5 O/U 51.5
Syracuse is 6-0 for the first time since 1987 and are ranked #15 in this week’s poll. The Orange are led by junior quarterback Garrett Shrader who is completing 69.7% of his passes for 1,434 yards, 12 touchdowns and 3 picks. Shrader is also second on the team in rushing with 300 yards and rushing touchdowns with five. Sophomore running back Sean Tucker has 644 yards and six touchdowns to go along with 23 receptions for 198 yards and one receiving touchdown. Sophomore wide receiver Oronde Gadsden, II has 31 catches for 507 yards and five touchdowns while senior wideout Devaughn Cooper has 16 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown. The Syracuse defense has been great, giving up only 13.2 points per game, 268.8 yards per game while getting 17 sacks, five interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Mikel Jones has 40 tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Sophomore linebacker Marlowe Wax has 38 tackles, 2.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Sophomore defensive back Garrett Williams has 32 tackles, one sack, three pass deflections, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
Clemson is 7-0 and ranked #5 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei had a slow start to this season but has come on as of late. He’s completing 64.3% of his passes for 1,665 yards and 17 touchdowns with two interceptions. DJU is also second on the Tigers in rushing with 337 yards and four touchdowns. Sophomore running back Will Shipley has 567 yards and eight touchdowns. Freshman wideout Antonio Williams has 24 catches for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Beaux Collins has 18 grabs for 290 yards and five touchdowns. The defense has been a bit leaky the past few weeks. They’re giving up 19.7 points per game, 338.4 yards per game and have 17 sacks, six interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Trenton Simpson has 4 tackles, two pass deflections and one forced fumble. Sophomore linebacker Barrett Carter has 33 tackles, two sacks, four pass deflections, one interception and two forced fumbles. Junior defensive end Myles Murphy has 24 tackles, two pass deflections, one forced fumble and leads the Clemson defense with five sacks.
Prediction: The Syracuse offense isn’t just relying on star running back Sean Tucker to move the offense anymore. The Orange are getting a lot of help from the arm, and legs, of quarterback Garrett Shrader. Clemson is getting similar production from their star quarterback, DJU. Clemson’s defense has been gashed in three of the last four games but they’re still a solid squad. Syracuse’s defense has been lights out, but they haven’t faced an offense like Clemson’s yet this season. Give the edge to the home team here.
Clemson: 33 Syracuse 30 take the Cuse getting the points and take the over.
GAME 2
UCLA @ Oregon (Eugene, OR) Oregon -6 O/U 71.5
UCLA is 6-0 and ranked #9 in the poll this week. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has completed an amazing 74.8% of his passes for 1,510 yards and 15 touchdowns with two interceptions. DTR is also second on the Bruins with 231 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Senior running back Zach Charbonnet has 615 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Jake Bobo has caught 24 passes for 285 yards and five touchdowns while junior wideout Kazmeir Allen has chipped in 28 grabs for 199 yards and one touchdown. The UCLA defense has given up 22.7 points per game and 344.8 yards per game while getting 15 sacks, seven interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Darius Muasau has 38 tackles, one pass deflection, one interception, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Senior defensive back Mo Osling, III has 33 tackles, 29 of which are solo and one pass deflection. Junior linebacker Laiatu Latu has 19 tackles, one pass deflection, two forced fumbles and is tied for third nationally with 6.5 sacks.
Oregon is 5-1 and ranked #10 in the poll this week. Senior quarterback Bo Nix has 1,526 passing yards while completing 70.4% of his passes, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. Nix also has 331 rushing yards and a team leading eight rushing touchdowns. The Ducks have a pair of stud sophomore running backs in Bucky Irving, 429 yards and two touchdowns, and Noah Whittington, 336 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Troy Franklin has 27 catches for 429 yards and three touchdowns and senior wideout Chase Cata has 19 catches for 279 yards and one touchdown. The Ducks’ defense has been a tad leaky, giving up 28.8 points per game and 373.3 yards per game while getting 13 sacks, five interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Senior defensive back Bennett Williams has 30 tackles, one sack, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Senior linebacker DJ Johnson has 20 tackles, one pass deflection, one fumble recovery and leads Oregon with four sacks.
Prediction: This should be a good game! If you throw out the Ducks opener against Georgia these two defenses are pretty evenly matched, stats wise. The offenses are also fairly even, but Oregon has played much better competition. UCLA’s offense has been incredible, but so has Bo Nix and the Duck offense. I have to give the edge to the home Ducks.
Oregon: 34 UCLA: 30 take the points with UCLA and take the under.
GAME 3
Ole Miss @ LSU (Baton Rouge, LA) LSU -1.5 O/U 64.5
Ole Miss is 7-0 and ranked #7 in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart struggled early this season but has picked up the pace of late. He’s only completing 61.7% of his passes for 1,488 yards, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions, while chipping in 371 rushing yards. Freshman running back Quinshon Judkins has 720 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Junior running back Zach Evans has 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Jonathan Mingo has 22 catches for 507 yards and three touchdowns while fellow senior wide receiver Malik Heath has 23 catches for 346 yards and three touchdowns. The Ole Miss defense has been good this season, giving up only 17.3 points per game and 346 yards per game while getting 19 sacks, six interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Senior safety AJ Finley is having an awesome year, getting 53 tackles, two pass deflections, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Senior linebacker Troy Brown has 52 tackles, .5 sacks and four pass deflections.
LSU is 5-2 and unranked in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Jayden Daniels is completing 69.2% of his passes for 1,564 yards, 10 touchdowns and just one interception. Daniels also leads the Tigers in rushing with 403 yards and six touchdowns. Junior running back Josh Williams has 229 yards and three touchdowns while sophomore running back Armoni Goodwin has 199 yards and five touchdowns. The pair of sophomore receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, Jr. have combined for 50 catches for 672 yards and four touchdowns. Star junior wideout Kayshon Boutte has had an up and down season, getting only 23 catches for 245 yards and one touchdown. The Tiger defense has been decent, giving up 21.3 points per game and 338 yards per game and have gotten 14 sacks, four interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Micah Bakersville has 40 tackles, one sack, two pass deflections and a pick six. Freshman linebacker Harold Perkins, Jr. has 31 tackles, 1.5 sacks, one pass deflection and one interception. Junior defensive end BJ Ojulari has 23 tackles, one forced fumble and leads the Tigers with 3.5 sacks.
Prediction:
Both teams struggle to defend the run, which benefits Ole Miss as they average 271.4 rushing yards per game. LSU has been improving under first year head coach Brian Kelly but if they can’t shore up that rush defense it’s going to be a long day down in Baton Rouge. I think LSU will keep it tight in the first half but then Ole Miss blows it open in the second half.
Ole Miss: 52 LSU 37 Take the points with Ole Miss all day long as Lane Train rolls through the Bayou! And take the over.