TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 3
Week 2: 1-2 overall 1-2 ATS; Season 4-2 Overall 4-2 ATS
Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel
#19 Penn State @ Auburn (Auburn, AL) Penn State -3 O/U: 48.5
Penn State is 2-0 and ranked #19 as they head to Auburn for a huge road game with Auburn. Senior quarterback Sean Clifford has completed 61% of his passes for 495 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Freshman running back Nick Singleton leads the Nittany Lions with 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Penn State lost All-American wide receiver Jahan Dotson but returns senior wideout Mitchell Tinsley, who leads with 10 catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Parker Washington is second on the team with six catches for 90 yards. The defense has given up 20.5 points per game, has three sacks, zero interceptions, one fumble recovery and is allowing 345.0 yards per game. Sophomore linebacker Curtis Jacobs leads with 11 tackles. Junior defensive back Joey Porter, Jr. has nine tackles, three passes broken up and one fumble recovery.
Auburn is 2-0 and currently unranked in the Sportsvivaldraft.com top 25 poll. Junior quarterback TJ Finley has been fairly ineffective through the first two games. While he’s completed 64.7% of his passes, he only has 279 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Junior running back Tank Bigsby leads the Tigers with 198 rushing yards and is second with three touchdowns. Freshman backup quarterback Robby Ashford is second in rushing yards with 129. Junior wide receiver Ja’Varrius Johnson leads with seven catches and 158 yards. The Auburn defense is surrendering only 16.0 points per game, 300 yards per game and has four sacks. However, the Tiger defense has yet to create a turnover. Junior linebacker Cam Riley leads with 20 tackles. Senior linebacker Owen Pappoe is second with 11 tackles while senior linebacker Derick Hall is third with 10 tackles and one sack.
Prediction: Penn State can move the ball on offense, especially through the air with Clifford and his receivers. Penn State’s defense is good and while they have worse stats than Auburn’s defense, they’ve played better competition. Auburn hasn’t been good through the air but has been stout in the run game. Auburn struggled at home last week against San Jose State and I think Penn State is much better than San Jose State.
Penn State: 24 Auburn: 13. Lay the 3 points with Penn State and take the under.
#10 Miami @ Texas A&M (College Station, TX) A&M -5.5 O/U 48.5
Miami is 2-0 and ranked #10 in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has 456 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while completing 73.9% of his passes. Sophomore running back Henry Parrish, Jr. leads the Canes with 217 yards and four touchdowns. Sophomore running back Thaddius Franklin, Jr. has 127 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Xavier Restrepo has 11 catches for 172 yards and one touchdown. Freshman Michael Redding, III and sophomores Brashard Smith and Key’Shawn Smith have combined for 14 catches, 190 yards and two touchdowns. The defense has only given up 10 points per game and 291.0 yards per game while getting five sacks, four interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Sophomore linebacker Corey Flagg, Jr. leads with 10 tackles. Sophomore Safety James Williams is second with eight tackles and has one pass broken up and one interception.
Texas A&M, thankfully, is not ranked in this week’s poll. Coming off a loss at home to giant killer Appalachian State, the woefully overrated Aggies are trying to pick up the pieces to their shattered season. Sophomore quarterback Haynes King has a 64.7 completion percentage while throwing for 461 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s also second on the team with 58 rushing yards. Junior running back Devon Achane leads with 108 yards and two touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Ainlas Smith has 10 catches for 185 yards and two touchdowns. Freshman wide receiver Evan Stewart has chipped in 10 catches for 105 yards. The defense has been good, surrendering only 8.5 points per game and 256.5 yards per game, four sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery. Junior defensive back Antonio Johnson leads with 17 tackles and has one sack. Senior linebacker Chris Russell, Jr. is second with 16 tackles with a ½ sack.
Prediction: In last week’s upset to App State, the Aggies allowed the Mountaineers to have the ball for 41:29 and get 22 First Downs to the Aggies nine. A&M was absolutely manhandled by App State. Those stats are both stunning and alarming if you’re an A&M fan. TVD is having a good season and will be facing a much different opponent than Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss as the Aggie defense is tough. Jimbo Fisher has stated he will reevaluate the offense, which means LSU transfer quarterback Max Johnson may get the start against Miami. No matter who starts, the Canes are coming out of College Station with the W. Something to look at for the rest of this season and next, Miami’s stats leaders are young! All sophomores and a freshman.
Miami: 27 Texas A&M: 20 Take Miami getting the points and take the under.
#24 Texas Tech @ #16 NC State (Raleigh, NC) NC State -10.5 O/U 55.5
Texas Tech comes to Raleigh the #24 ranked team in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback Donovan Smith has replaced starter Tyler Shough who was injured in the Red Raiders’ opener against Murray State. Smith has completed 67.6% of his passes for 571 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Junior running back Tahj Brooks leads the Red Raiders with 130 yards and four touchdowns and has caught six passes for 35 yards. Freshman wide receiver Jerand Bradley leads with 12 catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Loic Fouonji has seven catches for 140 yards and two touchdowns while sophomore wide receiver Nehemiah Martinez is third on the team with seven catches for 119 yards and one touchdown. The Red Raider defense has given up 20 points per game and 306 yards per game while getting six sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery. Senior linebacker Krishon Merriweather leads with 15 tackles, ½ sack and 1 forced fumble. Senior linebacker Tyree Wilson has 10 tackles and ½ sack.
NC State is #16 in this week’s poll and is led by Junior quarterback Devin Leary who has completed 56.9% of his passes for 449 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. He’s also chipped in two rushing touchdowns. Sophomore running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye leads with 149 rushing yards and one touchdown. 16 different Wolfpack players have caught a pass with senior wide receiver Thayer Thomas leading with six catches for 72 yards and one touchdown. No Wolfpack receiver has more than one touchdown. The defense has been very good, only giving up 11.5 points per game and 266.5 yards per game and registering one sack, four interceptions and one fumble recovery. Senior Cornerback Derrek Pitts, Jr. and senior Safety Tanner Ingle both have 11 tackles and one pass broken up.
Prediction: NC State’s offense has been good so far, averaging 441 yards per game. Leary’s completion percentage is low, but the run game has picked up the slack. Texas Tech feeds off the energy of first year head coach Joey McGuire and it shows in their defense. The Tech passing game has been very good too and they may get Shough back from injury this week. I still think it’s going to be tough for the Red Raiders to go to Raleigh and come out with the win, though.
NC State: 24 Texas Tech: 21 Take Tech getting the points and again with the under.