TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 11
Week 10: 2-1 overall 1-2 ATS Season Record: 20-10 Overall 11-19 ATS
Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel
TCU @ Texas (Austin, TX) Texas -7 O/U 64.5
TCU is 9-0 and ranked #4 in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback Max Duggan has completed 66% of his passes for 2,407 yards and 24 touchdowns (tied for ninth nationally) with two interceptions. Duggan has also rushed for 282 yards and four touchdowns. Junior running back Kendre Miller is 13th in the nation with 1,009 rushing yards and is tied for 11th with 12 rushing touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who is questionable for the Texas game with an ankle injury, has 42 catches for 650 yards and four touchdowns. Senior wide receivers Taye Barber and Derius Davis have 23 catches for 450 yards, three touchdowns and 28 catches for 385 yards and five touchdowns, respectively. The TCU defense has been ok, not great but not horrible. They give up 26.9 points per game and 396.9 yards per game and have 19 sacks, 10 interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Johnny Hodges has 55 tackles, 1.5 sacks and one pass deflection. Junior linebacker Jamoi Hodge has 53 tackles, 3.5 sacks, one pass deflection and one interception. Senior linebacker Dee Winters leads TCU with 6.5 sacks.
Texas is 6-3 and ranked #18 in this week’s poll. Star freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers has struggled with consistency, completing only 57.8% of his passes for 1,336 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Ewers has missed some time due to injury but has started the last four games for the Longhorns. All-American running back Bijan Robinson is sixth in the country with 1,129 rushing yards and is tied for 11th in the nation with 12 rushing touchdowns. Robinson has also chipped in 314 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Xavier Worthy has 40 grabs for 552 yards and is tied for fourth in the country with nine touchdowns while sophomore tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders has 39 catches for 450 yards and five touchdowns. The Longhorn defense has been ok, similar to TCU, giving up 21.8 points per game and 381.7 yards per game while getting 19 sacks, seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Jaylan Ford has 82 tackles, two sacks, one pass deflection, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Demarvion Overshown has 66 tackles, 2.5 sacks and three pass deflections.
I understand that Vegas knows what they’re doing, I really do, and I also understand that my record against the spread hasn’t been good, but how in the world is a 9-0 TCU team a touchdown dog to a 6-3 Texas team?? Quinn Ewers has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s also had some freshman mistakes. Max Duggan is having a great season as TCU’s offense is putting up monster numbers, but the Horned Frogs may be without top receiver Quentin Johnston. While neither defense is particularly good, I think the TCU defense will give the Longhorns’ star freshman QB fits.
TCU: 41 Texas: 30 take TCU getting the points and the over.
Alabama @ Ole Miss (Oxford, MS) Alabama -11.5 O/U 64.5.
Alabama is 7-2 and ranked #12 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Bryce Young is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,234 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. Junior running back Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Tide with 771 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and 39 receptions. Gibbs is second on the team with 365 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Ja’Corey Brooks has 28 receptions for 473 yards and five touchdowns. The Bama defense has been solid, giving up only 18.3 points per game and 303.6 yards per game while getting 29 sacks, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Senior defensive back Demarco Hellams has 71 tackles, one sack, six pass deflections, one interception, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Senior linebacker Henry To’oTo’o has 66 tackles and two sacks. Junior linebacker, and probable top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Will Anderson, Jr. leads the Tide with seven sacks.
Ole Miss is 8-1 and ranked #8 in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart has been inconsistent, completing only 61.1% of his passes for 1,911 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Dart has also racked up 473 rushing yards for the Rebels. Freshman running back Quinshon Judkins leads the Ole Miss rushers, and is 11th in the country, with 1,036 yards and is tied for fifth in the nation with 13 rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Zach Evans has 680 yards and seven touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Jonathan Mingo has 30 catches for 664 yards and four touchdowns while senior wideout Malik Heath has 32 catches for 491 yards and three touchdowns. The Ole Miss defense has been good this season, giving up 21.6 points per game and 378 yards per game and have gotten 25 sacks, six interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Troy Brown has 65 tackles, .5 sacks and four pass deflections. Senior safety AJ Finley has 59 tackles, two pass deflections, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
Alabama lost last week at LSU. The last time the Crimson Tide have lost back-to-back games in the Nick Saban era was in 2013. His teams are just too well coached, but there are some signs of this Bama team not being as good as Saban’s teams of the past few seasons. Lane Kiffin has the Ole Miss running game ranked third in the country with 267.4 yards per game. While I’m all about Nick Saban coached teams not losing back-to-back games, I think that spread is a bit too high. There I go doubting Vegas again!
Alabama: 37 Ole Miss: 30 take the points with Ole Miss and take that over.
UCF @ Tulane (New Orleans, LA) Tulane -1.5 O/U 54.5
UCF is 7-2 and ranked #22 in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who is questionable for the Tulane game for an undisclosed reason, has 1,883 yards while completing 64.4% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Plumlee is tied for the lead in rushing with 532 yards and is second with seven rushing touchdowns. Junior running back RJ Harvey also has 532 rushing yards and has four rushing touchdowns. Senior running back Isaiah Bowser has 503 yards and leads the Knights with 11 touchdowns, tied for 16th nationally. Senior wide receiver Ryan O’Keefe has 49 catches for 536 yards and four touchdowns while junior wideout Javon Baker has 36 catches for 504 yards and three touchdowns. The UCF defense has been bending but don’t break this season, giving up only 18.8 points per game but also 362.1 yards per game while getting 16 sacks, four interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Jason Johnson has 85 tackles (40 more than the next UCF defender), .5 sacks and one fumble recovery. Senior linebacker Jeremiah Baptiste has 45 tackles, one sack, four pass deflections and one forced fumble. Senior defensive lineman Tre’Mon Morris-Brash leads the Knights with five sacks.
Tulane is 8-1 and ranked #16 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Michael Pratt has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,843 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while chipping in 251 rushing yards and is second on the team with five rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Tyjae Spears has 745 yards rushing, 10 rushing touchdowns, 209 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Seven different Knights have at least 17 catches and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Shae Wyatt leads Tulane with 20 catches for 383 yards and two touchdowns while fellow senior wideout Deuce Watts has 21 grabs for 354 yards and five touchdowns. The Green Wave defense has been very good this season! They’re giving up only 16.9 points per game and 307.3 yards per game and have gotten 14 sacks, eight interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Dorian Williams has 71 tackles, four sacks, four pass deflections and one interception. Senior linebacker Nick Anderson has 69 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two pass deflections and two forced fumbles.
These two teams love to run the football! UCF averages 239.9 yards on the ground per game and Tulane averages 180.2. Tulane has been a bit better on defense, but for some reason I think this will be a high scoring game…for two rushing teams. I’m thinking this game is going to be won in the final minute or two and I think the home team comes out on top.
Tulane: 30 UCF: 27 lay the points with Tulane and take the over.