TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 12
Week 11: 2-1 overall 2-1 ATS Season Record: 22-11 Overall 13-20 ATS
Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel
Utah @ Oregon (Eugene, OR) Utah -2.5 O/U 60.5
Utah is 8-2 and ranked #8 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Cameron Rising is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,225 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. Rising is also second with 335 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Tavion Thomas leads with 632 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Senior tight end Dalton Kincaid has 50 catches for 649 yards and seven touchdowns while sophomore wide receiver Devaughn Vele has 44 catches for 546 yards and five touchdowns. The Utah defense has been great, giving up only 20 points per game and 327.9 yards per game while getting 29 sacks, 10 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries. Sophomore safety Cole Bishop has 60 tackles, 1.5 sacks, three pass deflections and one interception. Senior safety RJ Hubert has 58 tackles, two pass deflections, two interceptions, one pick six, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Sophomore cornerback Clark Phillips, III is arguably the best corner in the country and is tied for second in the nation with five interceptions, two of which are pick sixes.
Oregon is 8-2 and ranked #13 in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback Bo Nix has completed an amazing 73% of his passes for 2,775 yards, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions. Nix is also third on the Ducks with 516 rushing yards and he leads with 14 rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth in the country. Sophomore running back Bucky Irving leads with 831 rushing yards and has two rushing touchdowns while fellow sophomore running back Noah Whittington checks in with 620 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Sophomore wideouts Troy Franklin, 44 grabs for 775 yards and six touchdowns and Kris Hutson, 32 catches for 396 yards lead the Oregon receivers. The defense has been good against the run but leaky against the pass, as they give up 108.1 yards per game on the ground but 289.7 yards per game through the air. The Ducks are giving up 27.4 points per game and have gotten 15 sacks, 11 interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Sophomore linebacker Jeffrey Bassa has 46 tackles, one sack and one interception. Sophomore defensive back Christian Gonzalez has 45 tackles, seven pass deflections and three interceptions. Senior linebacker DJ Johnson leads the Ducks with six sacks.
Prediction: Bo Nix was hurt in last week’s loss to Washington, but he doesn’t appear on the injury report this week, which means he’s a go for the Utah game. In recent years this Utah team was trouble for Oregon, winning both matchups last season and splitting the last six matchups 3-3. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has a great system in place at Utah and his players have bought into it, especially on defense. Oregon’s offense has been incredible, averaging over 527 yards per game. Should be a great back and forth game and I think the home team comes out on top.
Oregon: 37 Utah: 33 take the points with Oregon and take the over.
NC State @ Louisville (Louisville, KY) Louisville -4.5 O/U 45.5
NC State is 7-3 and ranked #25 in the poll this week. Junior quarterback Devin Leary is the leader of this Wolfpack team, but he is lost for the season with a pectoral injury. Freshman quarterback MJ Morris has been the starter since Leary went out and has completed 60.5% of his passes for 648 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception while chipping in 88 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Junior running back Jordan Houston leads with 459 rushing yards and while he has yet to find the endzone on the ground, he has 193 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Sophomore running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has 305 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Thayer Thomas has 49 receptions for 569 yards and four touchdowns. The NC State defense has been solid, giving up only 18.1 points per game and 321.2 yards per game while getting 21 sacks, 16 interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Drake Thomas has 73 tackles, five sacks and four pass deflections. Sophomore cornerback Aydan White is tied for 10th nationally with four interceptions.
Louisville is 6-4 and unranked this week. Senior quarterback Malik Cunningham is questionable for the NC State game with a shoulder injury. Cunningham has completed 62.7% of his passes for 1,552 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Cunningham is also the leader with 561 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Tiyon Evans has 523 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Tyler Hudson has 57 grabs for 866 yards and one touchdown while sophomore wideout Ahmari Huggins-Bruce has 28 catches for 375 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinal defense has been ok, giving up 20.6 points per game and 352.8 yards per game and have gotten 35 sacks, 14 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Momo Sanogo has 74 tackles, 3.5 sacks and three fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Yasir Abdullah has 46 tackles, 5.5 sacks, four pass deflections, two interceptions and is tied for second in the nation with four forced fumbles. Senior defensive lineman Yaya Diaby leads the Cardinals with 6.5 sacks.
NC State is stumbling into this game after a mistake filled loss at Boston College last week. Malik Cunningham is questionable for Louisville but if he plays the Cardinals should roll. If Cunningham is out, junior Brock Domann will get the start, then it will be backup versus backup. Louisville’s defense has an amazing 27 takeaways this season and I think whether Cunningham plays or not the defense will lead Louisville to the win.
Louisville: 24 NC State 17 Lay the points with Louisville and take the under.
Boise State @ Wyoming (Laramie, WY) Boise State -13.5 O/U 44.5
Boise State is 7-3 and unranked this week. Freshman quarterback Taylor Green has completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,300 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Green is also third on the team with 294 rushing yards and is tied for second with six rushing touchdowns. Junior running back George Holani has 845 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns to go along with 144 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. Freshman running back Ashton Jeanty has 490 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Senior wide receivers Stefan Cobbs and Bill Bowers and sophomore wide receiver Latrell Caples have combined for 81 catches for 993 yards and eight touchdowns. Boise State’s defense has been incredible, they’re the 4th ranked overall defense giving up only 17.3 points per game and 264 yards per game while getting 25 sacks, eight interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker DJ Schramm has 74 tackles, 0.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Senior safety JL Skinner has 52 tackles, three pass deflections and two interceptions. Senior linebacker Ezekiel Noa has 47 tackles, two pass deflections, one interception, 4.5 sacks and is tied for third nationally with three forced fumbles.
Wyoming is also 7-3 and unranked this week. Junior quarterback Andrew Peasley has struggled with consistency, completing 52.8% of his passes for 1,284 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Peasley is third on the team with 325 rushing yards and second with two rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Titus Swen has 752 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Freshman running back DQ James has 346 yards but hasn’t found the endzone yet. (definitely should be looking into an NIL deal with Dairy Queen!) Sophomore wide receiver Joshua Cobbs leads the Cowboys with 29 catches and 364 receiving yards and is second with two receiving touchdowns. Junior tight end Treyton Welch leads with four receiving touchdowns. The Wyoming defense has been ok, giving up 23.1 points per game and 365.4 yards per game and have gotten 31 sacks, six interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Sophomore linebacker Easton Gibbs has 88 tackles, two sacks, one pass deflection and one fumble recovery for a touchdown. Sophomore linebacker Shae Suiaunoa has 59 tackles, 2.5 sacks, one pass deflection and one interception. Sophomore defensive end Devonne Harris is tied for 18th in the country with 7.5 sacks.
Gone are the days at Wyoming where current Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was slinging the rock all over the yard. The Cowboys are a much more run oriented team while their passing attack is one of the worst in the country, #125 of 131 teams. Boise State has a more balanced attack on offense and has a better defense, statistically, than Wyoming. That balance on offense coupled with Wyoming’s inability to pass will lead to Boise State getting a big road win.
Boise State: 34 Wyoming 17 Lay the points with Boise and take the over