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TJ’s Pick 3 of Week 13 by T.J. Chapman

TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 13

Week 12: 3-0 overall 2-1 ATS  Season Record: 25-11 Overall 15-21 ATS

Rankings are from Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel


Florida @ Florida State (Tallahassee, FL) Florida State -9.5 O/U 57.5

Florida is 6-5 and unranked in the poll this week. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson has struggled this season, only completing 55.7% of his passes for 2,351 yards, 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Richardson is also second on the Gators with 613 rushing yards and tied for the lead with nine rushing touchdowns. Sophomore running back Montrell Johnson, Jr. has 742 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Justin Shorter has 29 receptions for 577 yards and two touchdowns. Junior wideout Ricky Pearsall, who is questionable for the FSU game with a lower body injury, has 24 catches for 448 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Xzavier Henderson, also questionable with a lower body injury, has chipped in 38 grabs for 410 yards and two touchdowns. The Gator defense has been awful, giving up 27.3 points per game and 408.5 yards per game while getting 19 sacks, nine interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries. Sophomore safety Rashad Torrence, II has 76 tackles, one pass deflection, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Senior linebacker Ventrell Miller has 74 tackles, one pass deflection, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

Florida State is 8-3 and ranked #15 in the poll. Junior quarterback Jordan Travis has completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,526 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions. Travis also has 284 rushing yards and is tied for second on the team with five rushing touchdowns. The Noles have three sophomore running backs who have been major contributors this season. Trey Benson has 854 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Treshaun Ward has 538 yards, and five touchdowns. Lawrence Toafili has 422 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns and also has 266 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Sophomore wide receiver Johnny Wilson has 33 catches for 649 yards and five touchdowns. The Noles’ defense has been very good, giving up only 18 points per game and 293.4 yards per game while getting 33 sacks, seven interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Junior defensive back Jammie Robinson has 76 tackles, four pass deflections and one interception. Junior linebacker Tatum Bethune has 65 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two pass deflections and one fumble recovery. Sophomore defensive lineman Jared Verse leads Florida State with 7.5 sacks.


Florida’s offense can move the ball really well, but they’re going to have a tough time against Florida State’s defense. The Noles can light it up on offense and the Gator defense has just been downright AWFUL! This may be a close game early, but I think Florida State blows away the Gators in the second half.

Florida State: 41 Florida: 17 lay the points with the Noles and take the over, barely.


Michigan @ Ohio State (Columbus, OH) Ohio State -7.5 O/U 56.5

Michigan is 11-0 and ranked #3 in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback JJ McCarthy is completing 66.8% of his passes for 1,952 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. McCarthy also has 213 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Blake Corum, one of the top running backs in the country, is third in the country with 1,457 yards and is tied for second with 18 touchdowns. However, Corum was injured in last week’s game against Illinois and is questionable for this Saturday. Senior wide receiver Ronnie Bell has 48 grabs for 641 yards and two touchdowns. Senior tight end Luke Schoonmaker has chipped in 30 catches for 315 yards and two touchdowns but is listed questionable for an undisclosed reason. The Michigan defense, STATISTICALLY, has been one of the best in the country. The numbers are a bit skewed as the average offensive ranking for Michigan’s opponents is 99.7, not necessarily a murderer’s row of offenses. The Wolverines give up only 11.7 points per game and 241.3 yards per game and have gotten 31 sacks, eight interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Sophomore linebacker Junior Colson has 73 tackles and two sacks. Sophomore defensive back Rod Moore leads Michigan with three interceptions and senior linebacker Mike Morris is the leader in sacks with seven.

Ohio State is 11-0 and ranked #2 in the poll. Junior quarterback CJ Stroud has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,991 yards and a nation’s best 35 touchdowns to go along with four interceptions. Junior running back Miyan Williams has 783 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns while sophomore running back Treveyon Henderson has 571 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Both Williams and Henderson are questionable and if they can’t play freshman running back Dallan Hayden will get the start. Hayden has 503 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr., one of the best wideouts in the country, has 65 catches for 1,037 yards (eighth nationally) and 11 touchdowns (tied for third nationally). Sophomore wideout Emeka Egbuka has 57 catches for 914 yards and eight touchdowns. The Ohio State defense is similar to Michigan in the sense that, statistically, they’re one of the best in the country. However, their opponents’ average offensive ranking is 90.2, again building numbers against some of the worst offenses in the country. The Buckeyes give up only 16.9 points per game and 283.4 yards per game while getting 31 sacks, 10 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Tommy Eichenberg is tied for 13th in the nation with 105 tackles, 67 solo (tied for second nationally), 2.5 sacks, two pass deflections and one pick six. Eichenberg’s solo tackle amount is one tackle more than the second most overall tackles for the Buckeyes, senior linebacker Steele Chambers, who has 66 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two pass deflections, one interception and a fumble recovery for a touchdown.


Ohio State has a high-flying, high-powered offense, while Michigan pounds their opponents into submission with their run game. Both defenses are solid, but we’re about to find out which one of them is for real since neither team has faced an opponent this season with the type of offense they’re going to face Saturday. The best offense either team has played against is the same team, Penn State, and they’re ranked #37 in overall offense. At The Shoe, with the offensive weapons Ohio State has, I think the Buckeyes will find the holes in the Michigan defense and come out with a big win over “that team up north”.

Ohio State: 33 Michigan: 20 lay the points with Ohio State and take the under.


Notre Dame @ USC (Los Angeles, CA) USC -5.5 O/U 64.5

Notre Dame is 8-3 and ranked #16 this week. Sophomore quarterback Drew Pyne has struggled this season, completing only 61.8% of his passes for 1,703 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. Pyne also has 119 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Sophomore running back Audric Estime has 782 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Fellow sophomore running back Logan Diggs has 698 yards and two touchdowns. Junior tight end Michael Mayer has 59 catches for 711 yards and seven touchdowns. The Irish defense has been good, giving up 20.3 points per game and 317.2 yards per game while getting 33 sacks, nine interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker JD Bertrand has 65 tackles, two sacks and two pass deflections. Junior defensive lineman Isaiah Foskey is tied for seventh nationally with 9.5 sacks. Freshman cornerback Benjamin Morrison is tied for fourth nationally with five interceptions, one of which is a pick six.

USC is 10-1 and ranked #5 this week. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams is completing 64.9% of his passes for 3,480 yards (6th nationally), 33 touchdowns (4th nationally) and three interceptions. Williams also has rushed for 316 yards and seven touchdowns. Senior running back Travis Dye leads the Trojans in rushing yards with 884 and touchdowns with nine, however, Dye suffered a season ending leg injury against Colorado on November 11th. Senior running back Austin Jones has filled in for Dye as the feature back and has 455 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 191 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Junior wideout Jordan Addison leads the Trojan receivers with 51 catches for 765 yards and eight touchdowns. Fellow junior wideout Tahj Washington has 36 grabs for 549 yards and four touchdowns. The USC defense has been leaky, giving up 26.3 points per game and 405 yards per game while getting 33 sacks, 18 interceptions and six fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Shane Lee has 65 tackles, 2.5 sacks, one pass deflection and two interceptions, one he returned for a touchdown. Sophomore defensive back Calen Bullock has 38 tackles, four pass deflections and is tied for 12th in the country with four interceptions, one of which is a pick six. Junior defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu leads the nation with 11.5 sacks.


Notre Dame has struggled offensively for most of the season but has shown some signs of life in the last few weeks. The run game has improved as the Irish are averaging 191.2 yards per game on the ground. USC’s offense is incredible and can outscore pretty much anyone in the country. The Trojan defense is a typical Alex Grinch defense, plenty of takeaways but also gives up plenty of points and yards. Notre Dame’s defense has been good but they’ve yet to go up against an offense like USC’s, which is averaging an amazing 513 yards per game! I think USC will control this game from start to finish and blow the Irish away.

USC: 48 Notre Dame: 23 lay the points with USC and take the over.

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