TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 5
Week 3: 1-2 overall 1-2 ATS Season Record: 9-6 Overall 5-7 ATS
Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel
Texas -v- Oklahoma (Dallas, TX) Texas -7 O/U 65.5
Texas is 3-2 and unranked this week. Super Freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers was hurt in week 2 against Alabama and hasn’t played since but may be available Saturday. The Longhorns have been led on offense by sophomore quarterback Hudson Card who has completed 69.2% of his passes for 923 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He’s also chipped in 46 rushing yards. Junior running back Bijan Robinson leads the Texas rushing attack with 515 yards and eight touchdowns. He also has 188 receiving yards and one touchdown. Sophomore wide receiver Xavier Worthy has 21 catches for 331 yards, three receiving touchdowns and one passing touchdown. Junior wide receiver Jordan Whittington has 21 grabs for 257 yards while sophomore tight end JaTavion Sanders checks in with 20 catches for 212 yards and three touchdowns. The Longhorn defense has improved from last season, but that’s not saying much. They give up 21.4 points per game, 366.8 yards per game and have gotten 11 sacks and two interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns. Junior linebacker Jaylan Ford leads with 51 tackles and has one sack. Sophomore defensive end Barryn Sorrell only has 14 tackles, but he leads the Longhorns with three sacks.
Oklahoma is 3-2 and also unranked this week, making this the first time since 1998 that neither team is ranked in the Red River Rivalry. Junior quarterback Dillon Gabriel has completed 69.2% of his passes for 923 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. However, Gabriel has been in concussion protocol since last week and is questionable to play Saturday. If Gabriel doesn’t play it looks like Pitt transfer Davis Beville will get the start for OU, which will be the first start of the junior’s collegiate career. Senior running back Eric Gray leads the Sooners with 460 yards on the ground with three touchdowns and also has 92 receiving yards. Junior wide receiver Marvin Mims has 22 catches for 438 yards and three touchdowns. Junior wideout Theo Wease has 11 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Senior tight end Brayden Willis has 13 catches for 185 yards and four touchdowns. The defense has been surprisingly bad being that first-year head coach Brent Venables is a defensive guru. The Sooners give up 25.2 points per game and 423 yards per game and have gotten 14 sacks, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker David Ugwoegbu leads with 44 tackles and one sack. Sophomore linebacker Danny Stutsman is second with 42 tackles and has 1.5 sacks and three passes broken up. Junior defensive lineman Reggie Grimes leads the Sooners with four sacks.
Texas played Alabama tough in week 2 but lost star freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers in that game. The Longhorns have been hot and cold this season, so if Ewers is ready to play Saturday it’ll give the offense a huge boost. Oklahoma started 3-0 but the past two games they’ve been atrocious on defense in losses to Kansas State and TCU. Texas has played better on defense this season and the offense has been pretty good. If Beville starts for OU that will be a major blow to the Sooner offense.
Texas: 33 Oklahoma 30 Take OU getting the points and take the under.
TCU @ Kansas (Lawrence, KS) TCU -7 O/U 67.5
TCU is 4-0 and ranked #14 in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback Max Duggan has completed an amazing 74.5% of his passes for 997 yards and 11 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception this season. Duggan has also rushed for 149 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Kendre Miller leads the Horned Frogs with 386 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Senior running back Emari Demercado is second both in yards with 182 and touchdowns with four. Talk about spreading the ball around, 18 different Horned Frogs have caught a pass this season! Senior Taye Barber leads with 208 yards, is third with 11 catches and has one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Derius Davis leads with 14 catches and is second with 158 yards and two touchdowns. The defense has given up 22 points per game and 368.5 yards per game while getting nine sacks, four interceptions and one fumble recovery. Junior linebacker Johnny Hodges leads with 25 tackles and has added 1.5 sacks. Junior safety Mark Perry is second with 20 tackles while senior linebacker Dee Winters is third with 19 tackles, has 1 fumble recovery and leads TCU with 3.5 sacks.
Kansas is 5-0, yes, you read that right, the program who has been GOD AWFUL for the past 13 years is 5-0 and RANKED! Yes, Kansas is ranked in FOOTBALL, #17 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels has completed 68.2% of his passes for 983 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception. He’s also second on the team with 329 rushing yards and is tied for the lead with five touchdowns. Sophomore running back Devin Neal leads with 333 yards and four touchdowns while fellow sophomore Daniel Hishaw, Jr. is third with 259 yards and tied for the lead with five touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Luke Grimm leads with 19 catches for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Lawrence Arnold has 14 grabs for 194 yards and one touchdown. The star of last season’s upset win at Texas, sophomore tight end Jared Casey has six catches for 85 yards and one touchdown. If you want to see an incredible video look up “KU vs UT two-point conversion by Jared Casey”. It’s a cellphone video of his parents on the opposite side of the stadium and when they realize it’s their son who caught the pass, they go ballistic! He earned an NIL deal with Applebee’s after that! The Jayhawks defense has given up 24 points per game and 382.6 yards per game while getting 15 sacks, four interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Rich Miller leads with 38 tackles. Junior defensive end Lonnie Phelps is fifth on the team with 23 tackles but leads the Jayhawks, and is sixth in the country, with five sacks.
It blows me away that Kansas football is 5-0 and this Saturday ESPN’s College GameDay will be at this game, for football, in Kansas. It’s a testament to the incredible job second-year head coach Lance Leipold has done. The atmosphere at Memorial Stadium will be ELECTRIC! But TCU has been great as well, led by first-year head coach Sonny Dykes. Their offense has been lethal, even more so than Kansas’ offense has been. I can see this game being won in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and I think it will be TCU coming out of Lawrence with the W.
TCU: 44 Kansas 40. Take Kansas getting the points and the over.
Kansas State @ Iowa State (Ames, IA) Kansas State -2 O/U 45.5
Kansas State is 4-1 and ranked #20 in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback Adrian Martinez has completed 62.2% of his passes for 654 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. Martinez is also second on the Wildcats with 469 rushing yards and leads with nine touchdowns. Junior running back Deuce Vaughn leads with 638 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Malik Knowles has 15 catches for 157 yards and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Phillip Brooks has 16 catches for 155 yards and one touchdown, while senior wide receiver Kade Warner has 14 catches for 133 yards and one touchdown. The defense has given up only 18.2 points per game but is giving up 370.2 yards per game while getting 14 sacks, nine interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Austin Moore leads with 35 tackles and has 1.5 sacks and one interception. Junior safety Kobe Savage has 32 tackles, two interceptions and one forced fumble. Junior defensive end Felix Anudike-Umozah has 19 tackles, two forced fumbles and is tied for fourth in the country with 5.5 sacks.
Iowa State is 3-2 and unranked this week. Sophomore quarterback Hunter Dekkers has 1,316 yards while completing 69.3% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Junior running back Jirehl Brock has 361 rushing yards and two touchdowns while chipping in 70 receiving yards and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson leads the nation with 49 receptions for 504 yards and five touchdowns. The defense has been great, giving up only 14.4 points per game and 255.4 yards per game and has registered eight sacks, four interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker O’Rien Vance has 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks, one fumble recovery and is tied for second nationally with three forced fumbles. Senior linebacker Colby Reeder has 23 tackles, .5 sacks, two passes broken up and two interceptions.
The game is in Ames, IA, which is a tough place to win at. K-State rolled Oklahoma two weeks ago and would be undefeated if they wouldn’t have stumbled at home against a tough Tulane team. Iowa State’s defense has been great, but they really haven’t played any top-notch offensive teams. That changes this week as the Wildcats average 32.4 points per game and 406.4 yards per game on offense. The Cyclones lost their last two games, to Baylor and at Kansas, by a total of ten points. K-State’s defense has been a bend but don’t break defense, but I don’t think the Cyclones pose enough of a threat offensively to win.
Kansas State: 23 Iowa State: 10 Lay the points with K-State and definitely take that under.