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TJ’s Pick 3 Week 4 by T.J. Chapman

TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 4

Week 3: 2-1 overall 1-2 ATS  Season Record: 6-3 Overall 5-4 ATS

Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel

GAME 1

#24 Florida @ #11 Tennessee (Knoxville, TN) Tennessee -10.5 O/U: 62.5

Florida is 2-1 and ranked #24 in this week’s poll. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson has had a rough start to the season. After a decent outing in the opener against Utah Richardson has cooled off considerably. AR-15 has completed only 53.2% of his passes for 423 yards and four interceptions. No, I didn’t miss anything, he has ZERO passing touchdowns this season. However, he is the third leading rusher with 134 rushing yards and leads the Gators with three rushing touchdowns. Sophomore running back Montrell Johnson, Jr. leads Florida with 240 rushing yards and has two touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Ricky Pearsall has seven catches for 120 yards while sophomore wide receiver Xzavier Henderson has 15 catches for 94 yards. The defense has given up 26.67 points per game, 373.3 yards per game and has three sacks, four interceptions and one fumble recovery. Senior safety Trey Dean, III leads with 30 tackles, a ½ sack and one pass broken up. Sophomore safety Rashad Torrence, II is second with 22 tackles and junior Brenton Cox, Jr. is third with 21 tackles.

Tennessee is 3-0 and ranked #11 in this week’s poll. The lethal Vol offense is led by senior quarterback Hendon Hooker who has 844 passing yards while completing 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. Sophomore running back Jaylen Wright leads with 231 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Junior Jabari Small is second with 194 yards and three touchdowns. Small was banged up in the Akron game last week but should be available Saturday. Junior wide receiver Jaylin Hyatt leads Tennessee with 18 catches for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Senior wideout Cedric Tillman is second with 17 catches for 246 yards and one touchdown. Tillman was also banged up against Akron and is listed as questionable for the Florida game. The defense has improved from last season, giving up 14.3 points per game, 344.7 yards per game while getting eight sacks, three interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Aaron Beasley leads the Vols with 22 tackles. Senior defensive back Trevon Flowers is second with 16 tackles and also has one sack and one interception.

Prediction: ESPN’s College GameDay is coming to Knoxville for this game. The game is on CBS in their afternoon prime spot at 3:30 p.m. New Florida head coach Billy Napier had the Gators rolling in the opener against Utah but stumbled with a loss to Kentucky and a narrow win at home against South Florida. I can’t get past the fact that AR-15 has ZERO passing touchdowns this season. Hendon Hooker has the lightning quick Tennessee offense rolling and the Vol defense is much improved over last season. In past years in a game like this Tennessee would blow this game against their rivals, but I think head coach Josh Heupel has the culture turned around at Tennessee. The buzz is back in Neyland Stadium. The Vols faithful will be checkerboarding the stands for this sellout of 101,915 people. Too much riding on this for Tennessee who has been rolling while Florida has been sputtering.

Tennessee: 47 Florida: 27 lay the points with the Vols and take the over.

I SAID IT’S GREAT TO BE A TENNESSEE VOL!

GAME 2

TCU @ SMU (Dallas, TX) TCU -2.5 O/U 70.5

TCU is 2-0 and unranked this week. New TCU head coach, and former SMU head coach, Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs running his trademark Air Raid Offense. Senior quarterback Max Duggan has an astonishing 78.1 completion percentage for 417 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 44 yards. Junior running back Kendre Miller leads TCU with 108 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 15 different Horned Frogs have recorded a catch with freshman Jordan Hudson leading with six catches for 84 yards and one touchdown. The defense has been pretty good, only giving up 15 points per game, 321.5 yards per game and getting two sacks and two interceptions. Junior linebacker Jamoi Hodge leads with 10 tackles while fellow junior linebacker Johnny Hodges is second with eight tackles. Senior safety Millard Bradford has two interceptions. 

SMU is 2-1 and unranked in this week’s poll. New head coach Rhett Lashlee has picked up the Mustangs offense right where former head coach Sonny Dykes left off. Senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai has completed only 59.8% of his passes but is third in the country with 1,013 passing yards, fourth with 10 touchdowns and he’s thrown three interceptions. Sophomore running back TJ McDaniel leads with 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Senior running back Tre Siggers is second with 140 yards and one touchdown. 14 different Mustangs have caught a pass this season with the unquestioned leader being senior wide receiver Rashee Rice who is tied for second in the nation with 28 catches, leads the nation with 491 receiving yards and has three touchdowns. The defense has been good, giving up 20 points per game, 371.0 yards per game while getting six sacks, three interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia leads with 22 tackles while junior linebacker Jimmy Phillips, Jr. is second with 19 with 11 being solo. Senior defensive tackle Elijah Chatman has 12 tackles and leads with 2.5 sacks.

Prediction: My FAVORITE kind of game, Air Raid versus Air Raid! There’s going to be a lot of yards and a lot of points in this game. SMU has a lot of pieces in place and their defense has been very good. TCU has played much lesser competition than the Mustangs, but they’ve still done what they’re supposed to do. The game is at home for SMU which I think in the end will give the Mustangs the edge.

SMU: 43 TCU: 40 Take the points with SMU and ABSOLUTELY take that over!

GAME 3

Duke @ Kansas (Lawrence, KS) Kansas -7.5 O/U 66.5

Duke, amazingly, is 3-0 but unranked in this week’s poll. The Blue Devil offense is led by sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard who has 723 yards while completing an amazing 72.7% of his passes for five touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s also chipped in 174 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Junior running back Jaylen Coleman has 177 rushing yards and three touchdowns and fellow junior running back Jordan Waters has 174 yards and two touchdowns. Senior wide receivers Jalon Calhoun and Eli Pancol have combined for 19 catches for 360 yards. Freshman Jordan Moore is listed as a quarterback in the Duke program but he has yet to throw a pass this season. However, he has 13 receptions for 128 yards and three touchdowns. I’m thinking position change is coming. The Duke defense has been really good giving up only 14.3 points per game and 348 yards per game while getting seven sacks, one interception and six fumble recoveries. Senior defensive back Darius Joiner leads with 23 tackles, 18 of which are solo, and one pass broken up. Junior defensive back Jaylen Stinson is second with 21 tackles, 13 solo, with one sack, one pass broken up and one fumble recovery.

Kansas, even more amazingly than Duke, is also 3-0, and not ranked this week. The Jayhawks are led by junior quarterback Jalen Daniels who has completed 67.1% of his passes for 566 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. Daniels is also the leading rusher with 237 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Sophomore running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw, Jr. each have four rushing touchdowns, Neal has 204 rushing yards while Hishaw has 170. Sophomore wide receiver Lawrence Arnold has 10 catches for 110 yards, sophomore Quentin Skinner has five catches for 105 yards and one touchdown while junior Luke Grimm has 10 catches for 99 yards and one touchdown. The Jayhawk defense has been a bit leaky but still has gotten the job done. They’ve given up 24 points per game, 382.3 yards per game and have gotten nine sacks, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries.  Senior linebacker Rich Miller leads the Kansas defense with 27 tackles, 16 solo. Senior safety Kenny Logan, Jr. has 19 tackles, 10 solo and one interception. Junior defensive end Lonnie Phelps has 14 tackles, 11 solo and leads the Jayhawks with three sacks.

Prediction; It amazes me, in a good way, that I’m previewing this game with these two teams undefeated. These two schools are basketball power houses so it’s really odd to be talking, in a good way, about their football programs. For the better part of the past 10 years Kansas has been the absolute WORST football program among the Power 5 Conferences and it hasn’t been close. Last year they brought in Lance Leipold to be their head coach. While the Jayhawks only went 2-10 last season, one of their wins was against Texas! Duke this season brings in former Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko as their new head coach. He has installed an incredible defensive scheme that the Blue Devils have bought into so far this season. But man, Kansas looks so different under Lance Leipold this season. The win AT WVU was huge for Leipold in building this program into a winner again. These two teams both have been in the lower tier of Power 5 football for a long time and it’s good that both, at least up to this point, look nothing like the teams of the recent past. The Jayhawks have a very good offense that Daniels is running smoothly and while the defense has been leaky, they’ve made plays when needed. (pick 6 in OT AT WVU). This game is in Lawrence and Kansas has just been playing so well and I think they’ll make just enough plays on defense to pull this one out.

Kansas: 37 Duke 33 Take Duke getting the points and for the third time this week, take the over.

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