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TJ’s Pick 3 WEEK 5 by T.J. Chapman

TJ’S PICK 3 OF 2022 WEEK 5

Week 3: 2-1 overall 1-2 ATS  Season Record: 8-4 Overall 6-6 ATS

Rankings are from sportsvivaldraft.com Top 25 and point spreads are from FanDuel

GAME 1

Washington @ UCLA (Los Angeles, CA) Washington -3.5 O/U 64.5

Washington is 4-0 and ranked #15 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. has completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,388 yards, best in the country. He’s also thrown 12 touchdowns and 1 interception. Penix is reunited with first-year Huskies’ head coach Kalen DeBoer, who was Penix’s offensive coordinator at Indiana in 2019. Senior running back Wayne Taulapapa has rushed for 307 yards and three touchdowns while adding 40 receiving yards and one touchdown. Sophomore running back Cameron Davis has 157 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Jalen McMillan has 21 catches for 367 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Rome Odunze has 18 catches, 293 yards and two touchdowns while freshman wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk has chipped in 13 catches for 256 yards and three touchdowns. The Huskies’ defense has been good, giving up 19 points per game, 302 yards per game while getting 15 sacks, five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Sophomore linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala leads with 23 tackles and has three sacks. Sophomore defensive end Bralen Trice has 14 tackles and leads UW with 4.5 sacks.

UCLA is 4-0 this season and is unranked in this week’s poll. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has 896 passing yards for eight touchdowns and one interception while completing 74.8% of his passes. He’s also rushed for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Senior running back Zach Charbonnet has 293 rushing yards, four touchdowns and has added 87 receiving yards. Junior running back Keegan Jones is second on the Bruins with 178 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also chipped in 87 receiving yards and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Jake Bobo has 15 catches for 221 yards and one touchdown. Junior wideout Kazmeir Allen leads with 20 catches for 152 yards and one touchdown. The Bruins’ defense has been good, giving up 18 points per game, 295 yards per game and getting 11 sacks, four interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Senior defensive back Mo Osling, III and senior linebacker Darius Muasau have combined for 42 tackles and one fumble recovery. Junior linebacker Laiatu Latu has 10 tackles and leads the Bruins with 5 sacks, good for third in the country.

Prediction:

Before going into my prediction, after seeing the pictures of the virtually empty Rose Bowl from their last home game two weeks ago, I’m wondering if there’s going to be more than 10,000 people in attendance for this matchup of two undefeated Pac 12 schools. The home field advantage isn’t much of an advantage for UCLA if it’s an embarrassing crowd again. There honestly may be more Washington fans at this game than UCLA fans, which is puh-thetic! While the Bruins are 4-0 this year it hasn’t gone smoothly. They only beat South Alabama by 1 point in that last home game. Washington, however, has dominated their competition, including a major beat down at home over Michigan State two weeks ago. Michael Penix, Jr. is playing lights out and I think the Huskies will be too much for UCLA. I wonder if Washington practiced with the speakers on Mute to prepare themselves for this game.

Washington: 48 UCLA: 21 Lay the points with Washington and take the over.

GAME 2-WEATHER PERMITTING

Wake Forest @ Florida State (Tallahassee, FL) Florida State -6.5 O/U 66.5

Wake Forest is 3-1 and ranked #22 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Sam Hartman has completed 64% of his passes for 962 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. Sophomore running back Justice Ellison leads the Demon Deacons with 186 rushing yards and one touchdown. Junior running back Christian Turner has 176 yards and two touchdowns. Junior wide receiver A.T. Perry has 16 catches for 273 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore receivers Jahmal Banks and Donavon Greene have 15 catches, 238 yards and five touchdowns and 14 catches, 237 yards and two touchdowns respectively. The Wake defense has been leaky, giving up 30.5 points per game, 375.8 yards per game while getting 10 sacks, four interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Senior linebacker Ryan Smenda, Jr. has 27 tackles while getting one pass broken up and one fumble recovery. Sophomore defensive back Malik Mustapha also has 27 tackles, and he has 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Florida State is 4-0 and ranked #24 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Jordan Travis has completed 65.9% of his passes for 945 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. He also chipped in 48 rushing yards and one touchdown. The Seminoles have a trio of sophomore running backs who are 1-2-3 on the team in rushing. Treshaun Ward leads with 350 yards, Trey Benson has 268 yards and Lawrence Toafili has 142 yards. Each of the sophomores has three touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Johnny Wilson has 13 catches for 272 yards and two touchdowns while senior wide receiver Ontaria Wilson has 12 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The Noles defense has been stingy, giving up only 18.75 points per game, 310.5 yards per game while getting 10 sacks, three interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Tatum Bethune leads with 25 tackles, and he also has one sack and one fumble recovery. Junior linebacker Kalen Deloach has 22 tackles, 1.5 sacks and three passes broken up.

Prediction:

With Hurricane Ian looming this game may get postponed. Sam Hartman carved up the vaunted Clemson Tiger defense last week. He’s been really good all season, which started off with a scare of blood clots. Wake’s defense has been leaky this season and FSU quarterback Jordan Travis has been on fire. While they’re not Clemson’s defense, Florida State has a solid D and I think they’ll make enough plays to get the W.

Florida State: 38 Wake Forest: 34 take Wake getting the points and the over.

GAME 3- WEATHER PERMITTING

North Carolina State @ Clemson (Clemson, SC) Clemson -6.5 O/U 42.5

NC State is 4-0 and ranked #10 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback Devin Leary has 890 yards passing for nine touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 64% of his passes. Sophomore running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has 252 rushing yards and three touchdowns while adding 102 receiving yards and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Thayer Thomas has 15 catches for 217 yards and two touchdowns while junior wide receiver Devin Carter has nine catches for 117 yards and one touchdown. The Wolfpack defense has been incredible! They only surrender 11.75 points per game, 261.5 yards per game while getting seven sacks, seven interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Drake Thomas leads the Pack with 24 tackles. Senior safety Tanner Ingle has 20 tackles and one pass broken up. Sophomore cornerback Aydan White has 12 tackles, one sack, three passes broken up, two interceptions and one touchdown.

Clemson is 4-0 and ranked #5 in this week’s poll. Junior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has passed for 1,033 yards with a 64.3% completion percentage, 10 touchdowns and one interception. He’s also the second leading rusher with 169 yards and one touchdown. Sophomore Will Shipley leads the Tigers with 353 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Beaux Collins has 13 catches for 218 yards and four touchdowns. Senior wideout Joseph Ngata and freshman receiver Antonio Williams have combined for 23 catches for 373 yards and one touchdown. The Clemson defense was good up until last week’s two-overtime win at Wake Forest. The Tigers are giving up 21.75 points per game, 346.3 yards per game while getting eight sacks, five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Junior linebacker Trenton Simpson leads with 27 tackles and has one forced fumble. Sophomore linebacker Barrett Carter has 19 tackles and also one forced fumble.

Prediction:

With Hurricane Ian looming this game may get postponed but as of now it’s still on. ESPN’s College GameDay will be broadcasting from Clemson so expect something catastrophic to stop this game from taking place. NC State’s defense has been really good so far. While the offense hasn’t set the world on fire, they haven’t been bad either. DJU started off the season a bit shaky, but last week he was able to put together a solid game to get the W for Clemson. That incredible Clemson defense gave up 447 yards and 45 points to Wake, but NC State’s offense is not as powerful as Wake’s. I see the Clemson defense cleaning up their mistakes from last week and DJ will make enough plays at home to secure the win.

Clemson: 17 NC State: 13 Take NC State with the points and take the under.

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