Fantasy Football: Week 16 Starts & Sits
COVID-19 is hitting the NFL hard which is making these fantasy football playoffs even tougher than usual. Last week I hit 50% on my starts and sits, I’ve been perfect 3/3 on my quarterbacks to sit and that is all. This is the most important week for fantasy football playoffs, depending on what type of league you are in. This is either to go to the championship, or your first matchup of a two-week championship matchup. I would love to hear that my advice helped somebody get into their championship game, but at the same time I encourage you to trust your gut and take my picks with a grain of salt. So obviously, keep the guys in your lineup that have been performing week after week. This article is going to give one start and sit for each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST, and K) the starts being guys that would usually be on the bench or a 50/50 start. But the guys that will be talked about sitting will be some guys that would typically make a starting lineup but have a tough matchup this week that may be a strong case to sit them.
Start em’ & Sit em’
Quarterbacks
Start: Trevor Lawrence @ New York Jets (Projected: 16.9)
Trevor Lawrence has not been everything that people expected him to be, but he has perhaps the easiest matchup of his rookie season. The Jets are awful on both aspects of defense, allowing the 7th most points to quarterbacks and the most to running backs. Lawrence’s best fantasy performance was week 5 against the Tennessee Titans, in fact his only performance above 20 fantasy points. The Jaguars interim head coach said that the team plans to use Robinsons like he is their lead running back, but Lawrence still threw 38 passes in their loss to Houston. Lawrence is averaging 36 pass attempts per game, but interceptions and lack of touchdown passes have been killing Lawrence all season long. With the season dwindling down Lawrence needs to get himself together to end his rookie year on a positive note, this matchup against the New York Jets could be the matchup to do so. Being the current quarterback 25 in fantasy football there are plenty of options above him, but if you are looking for that upside of “booming” Lawrence is your guy to have.
Sit: Carson Wentz @ Arizona Cardinals (Projected: 18.3)
The Cardinals defense made Jared Goff look like a good quarterback last week, this week the defense faces a better quarterback, but an offense ran by its running back. Carson Wentz is currently the QB15 in fantasy football, but after an 11-point performance in week 13 and a 6-point performance in week 15 I have little confidence for Wentz to be productive this week. The Cardinals are just as stingy against the run as they are against the pass, but Jonathan Taylor will still get the ball and will be heavily leaned on through the entire game. Wentz is not a bad quarterback for fantasy football, but with championships on the line I cannot trust him to put up numbers that will propel your team into the championship game.
Running backs
Start: Miles Sanders vs. New York Giants (Projected: 12.4)
The last two weeks that Miles Sanders has had (17.2 & 16.6 PPR points) has made me genuinely think if he is back and viable as a starting fantasy running back. The short simple answer is yes… for this week at least. The Giants are giving up on average 20.6 PPR points per game and Miles Sanders no doubt has the ability to hit 12.4 points and perhaps hit near that 20.6 points the Giants are allowing. Jordan Howard is a constant pest stealing touchdowns, and yards from Sanders which makes it difficult to name him a start for this week, but I am trusting Sanders this week. Miles Sanders was battling an injury earlier in the week but now has no injury designation. Again do not take out a guy that has been doing well for you or that you are confident in, this is merely a suggestion if your team has been hit hard by injuries or COVID.
Sit: Chase Edmonds vs. Indianapolis Colts (Projected: 10.5)
This will either be a huge hit or a huge miss. James Conner is currently battling an ankle injury and has announced that he believes he will be able to play versus the Colts. Last week against Detroit Edmonds averaged 8.8 yards per carry but was only targeted once in the passing game. Another note to mention is the lack of goal line work Edmonds has seen in his career. Before this season Edmonds had 217 carries in his career, with just one coming from inside the six-yard line, which putting his injuries aside is the reason that James Conner is not just a pro bowler but is third in the NFL in touchdowns (16) not counting quarterbacks. If James Conner plays Edmonds is an easy no hesitation sit this week, and though that may make it tempting to start Chase Edmonds, do not forget to consider that the Colts are the 4th best run defense in the NFL allowing 15.5 PPR points to running backs per week. Yes 15.5 is higher than 10.5, but you have to think that if Conner does not play Eno Benjamin will get some carries and potentially fourth string running back Jonathan Ward.
Wide Receivers
Start: Michael Gallup vs. The Washington Football Team (Projected: 11.3)
If Dak Prescott is going to find a week to have a bounce back performance this is the week to do it, against the worst pass defense in the NFL. As for Michael Gallup he has not played much this season, just 7 games under his belt is a big reason for his lack of fantasy production. But similar to Dak, if Gallup wants to bounce back and get into a groove heading into the playoffs this is the week to do so. There is tough competition there in Dallas with Cooper and Lamb, but with those guys taking the top corners in Washington it should set up shop for Gallup to have a big game. The Cowboys typically line up Lamb in the slot and have Gallup as an outside receiver, which could hurt as Lamb was the second-best slot receiver last season and has carried over and been spectacular yet again this year. I know this turned into a rant as to why Lamb is the WR for Dallas to have a big game, but my gut is telling me that it is going to be Gallup’ game to have a day. As the current wide receiver 80 in fantasy football it is more than likely that you have three or four receivers better than Gallup, but this matchup screams upside to boost you to your league championship.
Sit: Stefon Diggs @ New England Patriots (Projected: 15.1)
This man right here is why I say to take my starts and sits with a grain of salt. WR7 in fantasy football, double digit points in every matchup except 2, and another year with 1,000 receiving yards. Similar to his quarterback Josh Allen that I said was a sit in week 13 (I was right) it was so hard to type this name and have some confidence in it being correct. Before you click out and stop reading about why to sit Diggs, please listen to my reasoning why. Last time the Bills and Patriots met Stefon Diggs had 7 targets that he turned into 4 receptions for 51 yards, you could use the weather as an excuse, but this week will be no better as Gillette Stadium will experience winds at 14mph and gusts up to 31mph. Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis being out may seem like a plus for Diggs but I see it as a negative because now the defense will be able to put their full focus on preventing Diggs from taking over. This pick will either come back to haunt me, or it will be one of my greatest “I told you so” moments.
Tight Ends
Start: Noah Fant @ Las Vegas Raiders (Projected: 8.0)
Noah Fant’s best game in 2021 came against the Raiders in week 6 (15.7 PPR points), he put up 9 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. Teddy Bridgewater is out with a concussion for Sunday’s game against the Raiders, which leaves Drew Lock as the Broncos starting quarterbacks. Lock is not an amazing quarterback and this Broncos passing offense has been awful for the most part, but this is the week for Noah Fant to explode and get you an advantage on your opponent in the tight end category. I would not expect a 30–40-point game like Andrews, Kelce, and Kittle have been doing, but I would guarantee a double-digit point performance barring an injury. Albert Okwuegbunam, or as commentators say “Albert O” has recently been getting an increase in targets which could hurt Fant. However Albert is dealing with a knee injury that has kept him as a limited participant in practice.
Sit: Gerald Everett vs. Chicago Bears (Projected: 7.0)
If you have gotten to the point that Gerald Everett is an option for you to start this week, I am very sorry about your situation for the tight end position. Everett has gotten 10+ points the past two weeks in PPR leagues which is something that would definitely catch my eye when potentially looking for a tight end this week. But the Chicago Bears are giving up just 5.1 points per game to tight ends and the Seahawks are having an awful season this year with very inconsistent quarterback play from Russell Wilson. Everett is a must sit in my eyes this week, and I hope you have a better tight end option that has a great matchup like Noah Fant.
Defense/Special Teams
Start: Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (Projected: 7.1)
The Chargers’ defense has been very disappointing for fantasy football this year averaging just 3.9 points per game. This week the Chargers go up against the Texans who have allowed 9.4 points per game to opponent defenses, and with Brandin Cooks hitting the COVID-19/reserve list the Texans offense just got a whole lot less scary. The Chargers’ defense has busted 8 of 13 weeks this season, only scoring 7+ points 3 times all year, and having a season low -8 fantasy points against the Browns in week 5. The Texans offense has 21 total turnovers this season and this Chargers offense is going to look to add more to that total and add upon their season total of 20 takeaways.
Sit: Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings (Projected: 4.0)
The Rams have a benefit of the doubt with no Dalvin Cook in this game, but Cook being out only upped the defenses projected total from 3.7 to 4.0. The Rams’ defense has been nothing compared to what it was last year in fantasy football, and this Vikings offense is a lot better than what it was expected to be. The Rams are the number 18 ranked defense in fantasy, and they belong on your bench this week, the Vikings offense has been very lethal both passing and rushing. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Vikings have a lot more to fight for than the Rams do as they are holding on to that sacred seventh seed.
Kickers
Start: Younghoe Koo vs. Detroit Lions (Projected: 7.0)
Koo has not been very good this season, after being the number 1 kicker last year he has been hard to start or even have on a fantasy team. This week the Falcons face off against the Lions and a large part of Koo’s lack of success has been the offense not being able to get into field goal range. The Lions have shown heart all season long and after that win against the Cardinals the defense showed it is capable of stopping offenses. The Falcons offense should be able to get into Koo’s field goal range in this game and Koo should get plenty of opportunities to have a good week for fantasy football.
Sit: Chase McLaughlin @ Green Bay Packers (Projected: 5.8)
The Packers defense and offense has been the best in the league this year and things are not going to change in this matchup against the Browns. McLaughlin has been decent this year and his 5.8 projected points is just .1 away from the Packers average allowed to kickers (5.9). The Browns should get a lot of their starters back this week which could help the offense get things moving, but McLaughlin should see more time on the sidelines this week rather than lining up on the hashes. McLaughlin has busted 7/14 weeks this season and averages 5.9 points per game. A kicker could make or break your chances at a fantasy championship, do not let a guy with the word “laugh” in his name.